Premium-plus beer growth stalls – but opportunities persist

Global sales of premium-and-above beer shrank in the first six months of 2025, as key markets such as the US, China and Brazil were buffeted by headwinds including ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and shrinking consumer expenditure.

The -2% volume decline in the first half of the year partly reflects a general softness across total beverage alcohol (TBA). IWSR data shows that TBA volumes in the world’s leading 20 markets*  fell by -1% in the first six months of 2025 versus the same period last year, accompanied by a marginal decline in value terms (excluding national spirits). Spirits volumes rose by +1% (excluding national spirits), but wine was down by -5% and total beer volumes declined by -1%.

The new figures signal a pause in beer’s premiumisation momentum, which had continued unabated since being interrupted by the Covid-19 year of 2020, with four consecutive years of volume increases. “Since 2019, there has been a sustained premiumisation trend in beer, with premium and super-premium tiers gaining, showing a long-term shift towards higher-priced quality offerings,” explains Marten Lodewijks, Managing Director and President, IWSR.

“But premium-and-above beer peaked in the first half of 2024, with super-premium-and-above beer being a little more insulated. Muted consumer confidence, uncertainty, poor weather and competition from RTDs saw premium beer decline in key markets such as the US, Brazil, China and Germany. However, no-alcohol beer is bucking this trend.”

In the US, premium beer was impacted both by competition from RTDs and by the closures of many craft breweries. Mexican beer imports – which have been affected by the Trump Administration’s tariffs policy – have borne the brunt of the downturn, as the Hispanic population has reduced spend on premium beer (as well as on other categories).

The category has also been caught in a pincer movement of rising prices – premium beer pricing in the US is up by about 20% compared to four to five years ago – and the fact that US consumers in more income brackets are now feeling cost of living pressures, prompting a value drive across a broader cohort of beer drinkers.

Further declines in premium-and-above beer sales have been reported in a number of other major markets, including Germany, Brazil and China. In the latter, premium beer volumes were down -13% in the first half of 2025 (compared to a +91% volume rise in H1 2024), as consumers went out less and a number of restaurants permanently closed.

However, the category still benefits from a number of growth pockets around the world: of the top 20 markets, 12 recorded volume gains for premium-and-above beer in the first half of 2025, according to IWSR data, with India, South Africa, Mexico and the UK particularly robust.

India’s strong performance reflects a generally buoyant TBA market; while total beer volumes were up +7% in the first half of 2025, the premium-and-above segment outstripped this with an +8% increase. Consumption was particularly strong in the south of the country, and was boosted by good weather, until rains came in June.

In both South Africa and Mexico, beer was a primary contributor to TBA growth in the first six months of this year, with expansion across price brands and, in both markets, strong performances from non-alcoholic beer.

Meanwhile, premium beer growth in the UK was supported by the continuing popularity of world beers and stout – while the category in Japan benefitted from tourism, as well as consumers migrating from value beers thanks to tax harmonisation with traditional beers.

The UK’s strong performance reflects a general trend that was observed across Europe** : while overall beer volumes declined by -3% in H1 2025, facing challenges including economic caution, a struggling on-trade and evolving consumer preferences, premium-and-above beer remained resilient – with all markets experiencing growth except for Germany and Spain.

“The global growth of the premium beer category went into reverse in the first half of 2025, challenged by ongoing uncertainty and shrinking consumer expenditure, particularly in key beer markets,” says Lodewijks. “Nonetheless, premium-and-above beer recorded volume gains in the majority of the world’s top 20 markets, indicating that many opportunities for future growth still remain.”

* France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, UK, US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, Russia, China, Japan, Philippines, Thailand, India and Australia

** France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and UK