11/06/2026

Global beverage alcohol to drop further before recovering 

Following market rebalance, IWSR forecasts 2035 volume near 2025 levels 

11 June 2026 (London) IWSR forecasts global beverage alcohol consumption volume to decline for a further six years before resuming growth in 2031. 

The forecast is part of IWSR’s annual global data release, published today, which includes confirmed 2025 consumption data and IWSR’s first ten-year forecasts for all 160 national markets it monitors. 

Following declines to 2031, global volume is forecast to recover almost all of its 2025 level by 2035, amounting to a -1% total volume decline over the decade.  

The stabilisation in global volume from 2031 will be driven by two main factors: a substantial rebalancing of the global market, and continued growth in the worldwide drinking age population. 

Forecast national market rebalancing 

Over the next decade, the global beverage alcohol market will be shifting away from China, North America and Europe to India, South America and Africa. This is most clearly illustrated by looking at consumption by servings*, which better accounts for the different serving size volumes of different categories. 

The number of beverage alcohol servings consumed in China in 2035 is forecast to be -19% lower than it was in 2025. Other large falls in total beverage servings consumed over the same period are the United States (-18%), Japan (-15%), Germany (-14%), and the United Kingdom (-13%). 

Meanwhile, servings consumed annually from 2025 to 2035 will surge in Mexico (+13%), Vietnam (+15%), Colombia (+26%) and India (+38%).  

When measured by servings, India is forecast to surpass the United States in 2032 to become the second largest market for beverage alcohol in the world after China. 

Forecast drinking age population growth 

Moderation, whether driven by lifestyle or economic factors, will continue to be a growing trend over the next decade. Global annual per capita litres of pure alcohol is forecast to drop by half a litre by 2035 (a drop approximately equivalent to two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year).  

While this is a significant decline in consumption, the rate of decline is slowing. Meanwhile, the population of legal drinking age consumers is forecast to grow by 9% over the same period. This growth in consumer numbers is sufficient to bring total global volume in 2035 to just -1% lower than 2025 volume. 

Ongoing global shifts in category consumption are forecast to continue 

At the category level, beer volume reflects the broader beverage alcohol trend by declining globally from 2025 to 2035 by -1%.  

Global wine volume is forecast to drop by -14%, while global spirits consumption is forecast to lose -2% volume.  

RTDs will continue their strong growth, however, with +17% volume forecast for the next decade. 

Confirmed 2025 global data headlines 

In addition to updating its global forecasts, IWSR has also released confirmed 2025 data for all 160 markets it tracks. 

From 2024 to 2025, global total beverage alcohol volume declined by -2%.  

Among major categories over the same period, global beer volume declined -2%, global wine volume was down -5%, and global spirits volume lost -3%. The volume of RTDs consumed globally grew +3%. 

At the national level, 66 of the 165 markets tracked by IWSR in 2025 saw the number of servings of beverage alcohol consumed grow from 2024 levels. 83 markets saw declines, and 12 markets remained flat (0% change). 

Several of the world’s largest markets experienced meaningful declines. China saw a -7% drop in servings consumed during 2025. The US saw a -4% decline in servings, Germany experienced a -5% drop in servings, and the UK saw servings decline -2%. 

The largest markets that experienced growth were India (+4% servings), Colombia (+4% servings), and South Africa (+1% servings). 

Other highlights 

Several beverage alcohol subcategories enjoyed very strong global growth in 2025. These include: 

• No alcohol beer – up +8% volume 

• Indian whiskey – up +4% volume 

• Stout – up +4% volume 

• RTD cocktails – +14% volume 

• Soju (outside Korea) – +9% volume 

For the first time since IWSR records began in 1990, the total volume of spirits consumed worldwide exceeded the total volume of wine consumed. Both categories declined in volume in 2025, but spirits’ more moderate volume decline (-3%) was sufficient for it to surpass wine volume (-5%).  

As predicted in last year’s forecast, no-alcohol beer was the second-largest subcategory of beer by volume in 2025. In this year’s forecast, no-alcohol beer is expected to double its share of the global beer market by volume from 2% in 2025 to 4% by 2033.  

Quotes: 

Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, says:  

“The forecast stabilization in global beverage alcohol volumes is good news for the industry, but there are still plenty of challenges ahead. 2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today, and producers will need to cater to changing consumer tastes in established markets as well as prepare for significant changes in where consumption is taking place. Companies that only rely on past successes to carry them through the next decade will face serious challenges.” 

Luke Tegner, IWSR Head of Consulting, says: 

“In 2025, consumers continued seeking flavour exploration, convenience and ABV diversity to suit their consumption occasions. This is driving a shift in consumption away from more established categories like wine and spirits to RTDs. Global RTD consumption reached 1 billion 9 litre cases for the first time in 2025, and there is no sign of this trend abating anytime soon.” 

About IWSR: For over 50 years, IWSR has been trusted by the leaders of global beverage alcohol businesses as an integral part of their strategic planning and decision-making processes. We uniquely combine proprietary longitudinal market data, consumer insights and AI-enhanced data science, with valuable on-the-ground human intelligence in 160 markets worldwide, to decipher what is really happening in the global beverage alcohol market. With access to our data, clients from across the drinks industry, including multinational spirits, beer, and wine businesses; packaging and ingredient manufacturers; distributors; and financial institutions, plan their strategies and future investment with a reliable, consistent and complete understanding of the global landscape. 

Notes to Journalists 

Where appropriate, please cite “IWSR, the global leader in beverage alcohol data and insights.” 

Interviews are available on request. 

*For servings data, IWSR uses the following quantities:  

• Beer, RTDs, & Cider: 330ml 

• Wine: 150ml 

• Spirits: 50ml 

For questions or interview requests, please contact: 

Ned Vaught 

ned.vaught@theiwsr.com 

+44 (0) 7969 794568