29/05/2025

IWSR forecasts $34bn beverage alcohol growth in key markets by 2034

IWSR forecasts $34bn beverage alcohol growth in key markets by 2034

Two new products released, including 10-year Global Forecast Suite 

29 May 2025 – According to forecasts released today by IWSR, the global leader in beverage alcohol data and insights, the global beverage alcohol market is expected to grow by $16bn over the next five years. IWSR additionally released its first-ever 10-year forecast, predicting $34 billion in value growth over the next ten years across key markets.

The predicted decade of steady growth aligns with IWSR’s confirmed 2024 industry data, also published today, which shows a mixed year amidst a challenging political and economic landscape. Global beverage alcohol volume was down 1% but value was up 1%.

Several developing markets for beverage alcohol posted strong growth during 2024. Most notably, India added 6% in total beverage alcohol (TBA) volume and 9% in TBA value. Growth was evident across all categories, but most notably in beer and whisky.

TBA in Brazil grew just over 1% by volume in 2024 but value surged by 5%. Growing sectors included premium beer, RTDs and brandy.

South Africa posted even stronger figures, with 2024 TBA volume up by 3% and value up an impressive 10%. This growth was driven largely by beer and RTDs, including wine-based RTDs, which are perceived as a fashionable and affordable alternative to traditional wine.

In global trends, no-alcohol beverages continued to display strong growth in 2024. No-alcohol beer volume was up 9%, and IWSR now forecasts that it will surpass ale to become the second largest overall beer category by volume worldwide this year.

RTDs continued their global growth in 2024, up 2% in volume and nearly 5% in value. While hard seltzers continue to decline, cocktails & long drinks are surging in most major markets, and hard tea experienced 31% annual volume growth in the US.

Overall beer volume declined in 2024, but the category is benefitting from premiumisation trends in several key markets.  Premium beer volumes grew by 1% in China, while Super Premium beer in the US grew by 2%. Stout growth was also extremely strong, most notably in in the UK, where volume grew by 15%. In the US, stout volume grew by 5%.

Global spirits volume was down 2% in 2024, but significant growth was recorded in in several key markets and categories. Scotch whisky consumption in India grew by 6% in volume and 7% in value, and India is now forecast to become the biggest Scotch market in the world by 2027. Tequila enjoyed substantial growth outside of its home market Mexico in 2024, growing by 2% in volume and 4% in value across all other markets.

In addition to today’s 2024 annual data release, IWSR has also launched two important new products: the Global Forecast Suite and On-Trade Value data.

The Global Forecast Suite offers volume and value forecasts with an expanded ten-year horizon for the top markets. By providing users with more frequent updates, and visibility into future market direction it will improve strategic decision-making and help identify long-term opportunities for growth and resource allocation optimisation. A new scenario planning product is scheduled to be added later this year.

IWSR’s On-Trade Value data offers the first ever cross-market view of value from a price-to-consumer perspective in on-trade venues across twenty key markets. The new product provides users with a transparent view of this critical but notoriously opaque channel.

Emily Neill, IWSR Chief Operating Officer, says, “Beverage alcohol growth momentum has decisively shifted towards developing markets, with India likely to be the biggest engine of growth for the next decade, followed by Brazil and Mexico. The 10-year forecasts provided by our new Global Forecast Suite really lay bare the extend of the change that is coming, as the combination of demographic changes, shifting economic growth patterns and the long-run moderation trend in developed markets take full effect.”

Julie Harris, IWSR CEO, says, “IWSR has become the single source of truth for the global alcohol beverage industry. We’re now providing customers with even more strategic data and analysis through our new product launches: On-Trade Value data and our Global Forecast Suite, which delivers sophisticated 10-year forecasts to help clients plan with more confidence. As the world becomes less predictable, IWSR’s industry leading insights are needed now, more than ever.

Martin Belchev, IWSR Senior Economist, says, “Economic growth in developing markets is set to push up average disposable incomes, which in turn will fuel volume opportunities growth in key markets, such as India and broader LATAM. Global uncertainty, however, will continue to present both demand and operational risks, and will require enhanced scenario-planning capabilities, which we are planning to introduce into our Global Forecast Suite in the second half of 2025.”

About IWSR: For over 50 years, IWSR has been trusted by the leaders of global beverage alcohol businesses as an integral part of their strategic planning and decision-making processes. We uniquely combine proprietary longitudinal market data, consumer insights and AI-enhanced data science, with valuable on-the-ground human intelligence in 160 markets worldwide, to decipher what is really happening in the global beverage alcohol market. With access to our data, clients from across the drinks industry, including multinational spirits, beer, and wine businesses; packaging and ingredient manufacturers; distributors; and financial institutions, plan their strategies and future investment with a reliable, consistent and complete understanding of the global landscape.

Notes to Journalists: 2034 forecast based on 31 key markets plus travel retail (marked as DF=Duty Free) which represents about 80% of TBA volumes (Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Denmark, DF Africa, DF Americas DF Asia, DF Europe, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Philippines, Poland, Romania, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Türkiye, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam).

Value is in USD using variable exchange rate for actuals up to 2024, fixed rate for forecasts.

Where appropriate, please cite “IWSR, the global leader in beverage alcohol data and insights.”

Please only refer to IWSR as “IWSR,” and not by the previous name, the “International Wine & Spirits Record.”

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