Moderation and affordability concerns are causing shifts in consumer behaviour in the on-trade channel, as people reduce their intake and category participation, while also seeking true value both in terms of costs, but also through meaningful experiences, occasions and ABV optimisation.

According to IWSR Bevtrac consumer research conducted in September 2025, on-trade visits in most of the 15 key markets covered are still declining year-on-year, continuing a pattern observed earlier in 2025, and ending the brief rally seen in late 2024.

When people do go out, their on-trade visits are becoming increasingly “edited”, meaning that they are consuming fewer serves and fewer categories per occasion – behaviour that is consistent with the broader, persistent moderation and affordability pressures felt in many markets.

On-trade visits are also facing increased competition, both from at-home occasions driven by affordability, and the rise of alternative spaces for socialising, as forecast by WGSN, the global authority on trend forecasting. Jennifer Creevy, director of food and drink for WGSN, says: ‘At-home occasions are driven by affordability but there is still an opportunity here for brand owners as those consumers are becoming more creative with their at-home bars, seeking newness, quality pours, status-led sips and other experiential elements to show off their skills.’

In terms of alternative spaces, WGSN has forecast the rise of spaces for socialising outside of the traditional on-trade, including cafes, bakeries, hair salons and book shops. “Some consumers, particularly the younger LDA Gen Zs, are seeking occasions with intention, whether it’s meeting up around a shared interest or sports group, and these alternative spaces are facilitating this trend. This is something the traditional on-trade can tap into, it’s about reframing the offer. Consumers should see these venues as facilitating their needs, not simply a place for a drink anymore.”

The rise of intentional meet-ups also plays into the moderation trend, says WGSN. “Consumers are meeting up for a purpose, not necessarily for the actual drink.”

Radius, IWSR’s innovation tracker, agrees that occasions are shifting, pointing out the shift from late-night to daytime drinking occasions. As nightlife is increasingly perceived as too expensive, loud and depleting across generations, consumers are setting boundaries and prioritising event and occasion formats that protect both the moment and the next day, prioritising quality time and meaningful experiences over late night intensity.

“In practice, this shows up as brunch culture, day-clubbing and afternoon DJ sets, and drinks designed for lighter, longer sessions, such as ‘day-caps’ that are low-ABV, built for re-ordering and designed to sustain connection without tipping over into excess,” explains Claudine Ben-Zenou, Radius Editor.

WGSN says wellness is a key factor in terms of on-trade drinking and alcohol in general, across all demographics. “Consumers are more health-conscious than ever and that is manifesting in several ways, including earlier drinking times, more intentional meet-ups and lower ABV sips,” says Creevy.

‘Value’ moves beyond price

Premiumisation is still present in the on-premise, but its meaning is being reframed as consumers seek value, relevance and justification before parting with their money – becoming increasingly selective about precisely when and where they trade up.

This in turn leads to the targeting of an ABV “sweet spot” in drinks, where consumers look to secure the quality and buzz they desire, at the most affordable cost and in tune with the occasion.

According to IWSR Radius, there are specific ways in which on-trade venues can earn consumers’ trust, justifying increased spend, including:

  • Smaller serves and mini-cocktails: There has been a surge in interest in smaller formats, which meet affordability concerns while encouraging exploration via multiple orders. The trend also taps into “mindful indulgence” and the prioritisation of quality over quantity.
  • Emotional pay-off: Increasingly, it isn’t enough for a drink simply to be “premium”; instead, consumers want the entire experience to feel worth it, including packaging, expertise and quality of service.
  • Storytelling: Leading bars are now using cocktail storytelling as a lever to drive premiumisation, creating immersive drinks menus and “drinking rituals”, rather than simple lists of serves.

All of these shifts open opportunities for the on-trade to reimagine for the future, facilitating and evolving in line with the shifts in consumer behaviour.

On-trade category mix

As affordability pressures persist, IWSR Bevtrac consumer research highlights beer gaining ground on spirits in the on-trade.

Focusing on the UK market, although total beer volumes are forecast to decline, there are signs that on-trade consumption may prove more resilient. According to Bevtrac consumer research conducted in September 2025, 28% of UK consumers drank beer on their last occasion, down from 34% in September 2023.

However, 53% of beer consumers visited the on-trade on the last occasion, up from 46% in September 2023. Looking at Gen Z beer consumers, 70% drank in the on-premise on their last occasion – and 15% of beer consumers in September 2025 were Gen Z, up from only 10% in September 2023.

Gen Z’s pivotal on-premise role

Gen Z consumers are crucial to the future revival of the on-trade. Even as overall participation declines, Gen Z remains disproportionately engaged with the on-premise in many regions, including Europe, North America, Australia, South Africa and Japan.

Looking across the top 15 Bevtrac markets in September 2025, 39% of all consumers visited the on-trade on their last consumption occasion, versus 46% of the Gen Z age cohort.

Gen Z is both mirroring and helping to shape consumption patterns across the on-trade, says Marten Lodewijks, IWSR Managing Director and President. ‘Gen Z isn’t simply ‘drinking less’, he says. ‘Instead, the story is one of selectivity and intentionality, consuming fewer categories per occasion, aligning with the ‘edited occasion’ pattern we see more broadly in the on-trade.

“With this generational influence, Gen Z is helping to set the tone for earlier, lighter and more intentional drinking occasions now and in the future.”

IWSR’s On-Trade value and volume data for FY 2025 will be released at the end of May.

 

The above analysis reflects IWSR data from the 2025 data release. For more in-depth data and current analysis, please get in touch.

CATEGORY: All  |  MARKET: All  |  TREND: Convenience, Innovation, Moderation, Premiumisation  |  

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