‘Resilient’ ecommerce channel poised for renewed growth

The value of ecommerce sales for beverage alcohol declined for the third successive year in 2024, but the channel is showing clear signs of resilience, with a return to modest growth predicted in the years ahead.

According to IWSR’s Ecommerce Strategic Study 2025, which covers more than 85% of global ecommerce value[1], the channel recorded a smaller decline in 2024, with value down by -1%, largely thanks to declines in China and the US, in turn caused by lower total alcohol sales brought on by macroeconomic weakness and uncertainty.

Those losses in China and the US were the main drivers of the channel’s underperformance in 2024, leading to a revision of IWSR forecasts for the years ahead. However, ecommerce’s share of total beverage alcohol (TBA) value held steady at 3.5%, a level that IWSR predicts will be maintained in 2025, before growth returns, rising to a 3.8% share figure in 2029.

The relative stability recorded in 2024 follows a rollercoaster period for online alcohol sales, from rapid growth during the Covid-19 pandemic (2019-21 value CAGR of +35%), to a subsequent correction (2022-23 value CAGR -5%), and then last year’s smaller decline. For the 2024-29 period, IWSR is forecasting CAGR value growth of +3%.

“After two years of correction as channel dynamics normalised in the wake of the pandemic, ecommerce alcohol sales have stabilised and are set to return to modest growth over the forecast period,” says Guy Wolfe, head of ecommerce insights. “Our consumer research suggests that online usage dipped again in 2025, but to a lesser extent than the physical off-trade, indicating greater resilience of the digital channel.

“Frequency of use remains stable in most markets – although China is an exception – while volume and total basket spend still skew significantly higher in ecommerce than offline. As such, online growth is still expected to outperform the wider market, gaining modest share of total alcohol and the off-trade in the coming years.”

Established markets spearhead growth

China, Brazil and the US are expected to account for more than half of total online alcohol value growth between 2024 and 2029 – a reflection of consumer attitudes to ecommerce adoption and use, which are most positive in markets where online is already more mature.