Status spirits decline more cyclical than structural

High-end status spirits, defined by IWSR as having a global weighted average retail selling price of US$100+ per bottle, have not been immune to the negative trends affecting the broader beverage alcohol marketplace, with almost US$1bn wiped off the value of the segment in 2024, according to new data revealed in IWSR’s 2025 Status Spirits Strategic Study.

As spirits sales in China continue to suffer, falling -28% in value terms last year, the US has emerged as the number two market for the segment behind duty free, despite suffering its own value decline of -5% in 2024.

Duty free – which continues to recover from the lingering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic – will be a key driver of future status spirits growth, alongside an expanding basket of smaller markets, including India, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Status-level Cognac’s woes persisted with another -14% value decline in 2024, thanks largely to tough trading conditions in China, while Scotch whisky proved more resilient – and there were signs that high-end agave spirits sales in the US have now peaked.

“Having grown consistently since 2015, barring a dip during the Covid-19 pandemic, the overall value of status spirits fell by -8% last year,” says Guy Wolfe, Senior Insights Manager. “Underlying macroeconomic weakness in most major markets, combined with greater uncertainty due to the threat of US tariffs, kept consumer and investor confidence low during the year and restricted spend. In contrast to the previous year, virtually all price bands experienced declines, even the very highest.”

Despite current challenges, the longer-term prospects for the segment remain positive. Current macroeconomic weakness and the challenges of oversupply are thought to be more cyclical than structural, with sales expected to return to moderate growth over the next five years.

“Nonetheless, softer demand and greater availability of product means competition is now inevitably fiercer,” points out Wolfe. “A wider range of players with aged stocks and the rise of newer status categories like agave have created a more fragmented marketplace. Space on shelf and in buyers’ minds is thus very limited.

“Brand owners who invest through the downturn and focus on limited, high-quality innovation will be best positioned to grow and gain share in the future.”

Markets: China suffers; duty free key

Status spirits sales in China suffered another bad year in 2024, with the -28% value slump even worse than the decline experienced in 2023 – allowing the US to overtake China in value terms, despite its own -5% value fall.

Duty free continued its post-Covid recovery with a +5% status spirits value gain in 2024. The channel is poised to be a key driver of future growth for the segment, with IWSR forecasting a +3% CAGR value gain between 2024 and 2029. This compares with a projected flat performance for China, and a -3% CAGR decline for the US, thanks to anticipated reduced demand for status-level agave spirits.

Smaller markets will also be increasingly lucrative for prestige and prestige-plus spirits in the next five years: ‘other’ markets, including destinations such as India, Vietnam and Malaysia, are expected to post a collective CAGR value gain of +3% to 2029.

India is forecast to record a status spirits CAGR increase of +9% between 2024 and 2029, thanks to robust gains for blended Scotch (+9%), malt/grain Scotch (+11%), Japanese whisky (+11%) and agave (+13%).

“The duty free channel is benefitting from a broader trend toward experiential luxury, and is expected to be a major contributor to future value generation to 2029,” explains Wolfe. “Meanwhile, smaller markets like India, Vietnam and Malaysia are also set to play a greater role in future status growth.”

Categories: Cognac declines; Scotch resilient

Status-level Cognac sales suffered another dismal year in 2024, with value down by a further -14% thanks largely to China, where sales were hit by an anti-dumping investigation, which included the closure of the local duty free channel to restocking.

Cognac’s slump has seen its value share of status spirits slip from 51% in 2019 to 36% last year, lagging behind Scotch’s 38%. Scotch proved more resilient in 2024, but still suffered a -8% value decline, with blends slightly outperforming malts.

“Having become the leading status spirits category in 2023, Scotch consolidated its position in 2024,” reports Wolfe. “Despite losing value as most key markets struggled, duty free was a bright spot. Lower US tariff exposure and the recent UK/India free trade agreement should help support sales moving forward.”

Elsewhere, the US appetite for high-end tequila appears to have peaked, with new launches falling significantly last year amid consumer fatigue and a saturated market, while Japanese whisky grew on the back of duty free and new channel exclusives. US and Irish whiskey also expanded, but both categories face risks of future oversupply.

“Scotch is expected to lead future prestige and prestige-plus spirits growth, with US and Japanese whisky also making progress, and Cognac set to recover from 2027,” says Wolfe. “Weaker US demand will see agave spirits fall back.”

Baijiu continues to dominate the overall status spirits market, with 85% of total global value in 2024, thanks to a +6% gain during the year. However, the category faces major challenges going forward, including economic uncertainty and new government austerity rules announced in May 2025.

The buyer: rising expectations

As high-end spirits launches have proliferated, sales have softened, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand. “New product development remains key to status spirits growth,” explains Wolfe. “However, with the current challenges of oversupply, it is essential that brand owners limit both the number and volume of new releases.

“In today’s market, status spirits buyers are more selective and value-driven, seeking not just scarcity and prestige but also a compelling story that reinforces quality and authenticity. To succeed, brand owners must go beyond age statements and packaging to deliver products that genuinely connect with consumer values and aspirations.”