Texas: land of opportunity for super-premium gin?

Premium-and-above gin is confronting challenges in a number of mature markets, but targeted pockets of opportunity still exist, including in one perhaps surprising territory: Texas.

A detailed analysis of IWSR data and consumer research enables brand owners to compare the market opportunities across different countries, such as Japan, the UK, Denmark and Switzerland; but also in individual US states, such as Texas, Illinois, New York and Florida, using IWSR’s US Navigator tool.

Being able to pinpoint potential targets for future growth is all the more valuable at a time when premium-and-above gin volumes are struggling in a number of mature markets.

This is particularly evident in the UK, where premium-plus gin volumes declined at a CAGR of -12% between 2020 and 2024 (with sub-premium volumes also falling at a CAGR of -11% over the same timescale).

Less pronounced declines are also seen in smaller European markets, such as Denmark, where premium-and-above gin volumes declined at a CAGR of -3% between 2020 and 2024; and in Switzerland, where they declined at a CAGR of -4% over that period.

In all three countries, the prognosis for higher-priced gin is a difficult one: premium-plus gin volumes in the UK are expected to decline at a CAGR of -4% between 2024 and 2029, according to IWSR forecasts; the predicted CAGR for Switzerland is also -4%, while Denmark is anticipated to be flat.

As the high-end gin boom evaporates in these territories, identifying opportunities elsewhere becomes even more important.

In Japan, gin volumes grew at a CAGR of +14% between 2020 and 2024, with premium-and-above consumption expanding at a CAGR of +18% over the same timescale from a small base. While this growth is expected to moderate in the years ahead, premium-plus volumes are still expected to increase at a CAGR of 7% between 2024 and 2029.

At first glance, the US looks like a less lucrative opportunity for higher-priced gin: while premium-and-above volumes rose at a CAGR of +3% between 2020 and 2024, they are expected to be essentially flat to 2029.

But let’s take a closer look.

Despite those impressive growth numbers and high overall volumes, Japan’s gin market is heavily skewed towards the value and standard price tiers, with premium-and-above’s share of total volumes in 2024 sitting at only 9%. “Japan is a strong volume market for gin, but it is less mature from a premium entry standpoint,” explains Marten Lodewijks, President IWSR US.

What is more, local brands dominate across all price points, shrinking the opportunity for imported products. “The gin category in Japan continued to grow in 2024, but growth came mainly from two locally produced brands, while imports found it difficult to make any gains, declining for the second consecutive year,” says Lodewijks.

“Imported gins are likely to struggle during the forecast period as they compete with big local and craft brands, with more competitive pricing. Local gin is likely to continue growing as it is gaining popularity among Japanese consumers through high marketing spends, and among tourists who show a preference for local over imported products.”

Turning to the US, a state-by-state analysis using IWSR’s US Navigator tool enables us to identify potential target markets for premium-and-above gin – a valuable insight in a large and highly complex market where imported brands typically enter individual states, rather than the country as a whole.

In 2024, looking at four potential target states, premium-and-above’s share of total gin volumes was as follows:

• Texas: 36%
• Illinois: 33%
• New York: 30%
• Florida: 21%

So, while gin is a small category in volume terms in Texas, it has a high degree of premiumisation – much more so than Japan.

IWSR’s Bevtrac consumer research adds to this picture, suggesting that Texans are feeling more positive about their finances and the future than Japanese consumers.

According to surveys conducted in March 2025, only 19% of Japanese consumers said they were optimistic about the future, versus 49% of Texans (a figure that is also appreciably higher than the US average of 41%). Asked if their personal finances were in really good shape, 22% of Japanese consumers said yes, compared to 37% of Texans.

Bevtrac research also suggests that 16% of LDA (legal drinking age) respondents in Texas have consumed gin in the past six months – slightly more than in Japan, which sits at 13%. While 13% of Japanese consumers have consumed a gin-and-tonic in the past six months, for Texas the number is only 8%, although it should be stated that the gin-and-tonic has not been a traditional category staple in the US.

“Our research shows that gin in Texas may be small, but the category is deeply premiumised – exceeding Japan and still above other US states, even if Illinois is close,” says Lodewijks. “This suggests that Texas is a highly targeted opportunity for super-premium gin, especially in cities like Austin or Dallas, which already have a strong cocktail culture.”

He continues: “This level of analysis empowers companies to make informed decisions, based on how their brands are positioned, on which price tiers and markets are likely to provide the most lucrative future growth opportunities – from entire countries to individual US states.

“The ability to make comparisons across territories, both in terms of raw data and insights from consumer research, is a vital tool to enable brand owners to hone their strategies at such a complex and challenging time in the beverage alcohol marketplace.”