Smaller Emerging Markets Will Fuel Global Growth of Beer

IWSR forecasts the category to reach 1.9bn hectolitres by 2023, strengthened by craft and low/no alcohol beer

While global beer consumption slowed last year, IWSR Drinks Market Analysis research forecasts that beer will rebound in the coming years, growing especially in smaller emerging markets. The category is expected to show a slight increase this year and grow to nearly 1.9bn hectolitres by 2023 (with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7% 2018 to 2023.) Global retail value of beer is forecasted to increase 5% by 2023, to more than $455bn (USD).


These figures – and more than 1.5 million other points of data – are included in the newly released 2019 IWSR Drinks Market Analysis Global Database.

Among the top beer markets in the world, the strongest volume gains in the category (CAGR 2018-2023) are expected in Brazil (0.5%), Mexico (4.4%), Vietnam (2.9%), Spain (2.7%), and Poland (2.0%). The markets forecasted to contribute the most to global beer’s total volume in the next five years are Mexico (expected to add 21m hl, for a total of 108.3m hl by 2023), India (with the addition of 13.4m hl), the Philippines (with the addition of 9m hl), and Vietnam (adding 6.5m hl to that country’s total.)

It’s the smaller and emerging markets which will help put beer back into the overall positive column over the next five years

“With major mature beer markets such as China, the U.S., Germany, Russia, and Japan all expected to continue showing declines in beer consumption, it’s the smaller and emerging markets which will help put beer back into the overall positive column over the next five years,” says Mark Meek, CEO of IWSR Drinks Market Analysis.

In Mexico, for instance, consumers are increasingly health-conscious, which helps have a positive impact on the beer category. The large players in that market are investing heavily in ultra-low-calorie brands and are continuing to develop convenient retail offerings in order to make beer more accessible. In Vietnam, already the ninth-largest beer market in the world, the increasingly challenging legislative requirement there for the spirits category is expected to benefit beer.

The growing global popularity of craft beers and low/no-alcohol beer is also strengthening the category. Globally, volume of craft beer is expected to grow by 4.5% CAGR 2018-2023 to 52.2m hl, with the largest gains (albeit from small bases) in Costa Rica, Paraguay, India, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic. The U.S., Brazil, and Canada are the largest global markets for craft beer. Low-alcohol beer is forecasted to grow by 2.8% and no-alcohol beer by 8.8% CAGR 2018-2023.

For more in-depth global alcohol figures, take a look at our Global Database subscription.

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