US RTD landscape transformed by category shifts

RTD volumes in the US are stabilising after strong post pandemic growth and are expected to return to growth by 2030, boosted by cocktails and hard teas, which are taking share from hard seltzers and FABs.

Meanwhile, sports drink-oriented products are an emerging niche, offering ‘fun and function’ in the better-for-you space – and on-premise consumption is surging as it establishes itself as the fastest path to premium positioning for spirit-based RTDs.

According to IWSR’s RTDs Strategic Study 2026 USA, RTD volumes declined by -1% in the US during 2025. The headline figures, however, mask the deep changes occurring within US RTDs. Hard seltzers continue to command the largest share of the category, but their volumes shrank by -8% in 2025, and are expected to continue to fall, with a forecast CAGR of -7% between 2025 and 2030.

FABs are also falling, with volumes down -4% in 2025, and a predicted CAGR decline of -3% to 2030, according to IWSR forecast data. But RTD cocktails enjoyed a strong year in 2025 as volumes surged by +17%, while the broader cocktails and long drinks segment is expected to expand at a CAGR of +9% to 2030. Hard tea volumes grew by +5% in 2025, with IWSR forecasting CAGR growth of +5% to 2030.

Thanks to these contrasting performances, RTD cocktails are fast catching up with hard seltzers and FABs, reports Susie Goldspink, IWSR Head of RTD Insights. “With cocktail, hard seltzer and FAB volumes converging by 2030, investment should be prioritised where momentum is building, rather than on defending legacy share,” she says. “Consumers have shown a willingness to spend more for premium products they like.”

Cocktails and long drinks drive innovation

RTD innovation has slowed in recent years as companies have learnt from the over-launch mistakes of the hard seltzer era, with cocktails and long drinks consistently holding the largest share of innovation through the consolidation period. Hard seltzer innovation has decreased significantly, and it has shifted for FABs as brand owners focus their resources on emerging niches and proven winners.

Cocktails and long drinks represent the category’s enduring NPD priority, but even here innovation is becoming less significant: while spirit-based cocktail/long drink volumes surged by +53% in 2025, only 2% of this growth was attributable to newly launched products, indicating that gains are coming from brands that are already on the shelves.

At the same time, appetite for premium cocktails can help to offset declines for legacy products. Whisky RTD volumes fell by -11% in 2025, but the whisky sour RTD cocktail grew by more than 1,500% and now accounts for 66% of all whisky RTD volumes.

“This is evidence of real demand for premium cocktails, even when legacy product volumes are declining,” explains Goldspink. “Whisky RTDs have a forecast CAGR of +1%, but will essentially be flat. It is an RTD base where legacy product contraction masks significant premium cocktail demand.”

On-trade grows in influence

RTD consumption still mainly occurs at home, but on-premise venues are gaining as purchasing becomes increasingly omnichannel. According to IWSR’s US Spirit-based RTDs 2026 report, the share of spirits-based RTDs accounted for by the on-trade has risen from 6% in 2020 to 16% in 2026, and is expected to hit 19% by 2030, growing at a CAGR of +12%, versus a +5% CAGR gain for the off-premise.

Meanwhile, consumer research in IWSR’s broader RTDs Strategic Study 2026 USA indicates that 47% of people recalled buying RTDs in the on-trade in 2026, compared to only 37% in 2023.

“The on-premise is growing twice as fast as the off-premise for spirit-based RTDs,” points out Goldspink. “On-premise activation is the fastest path to premium positioning. The channel establishes the price reference point that follows a product into retail.

“The on-premise is also the channel where non-vodka bases have their biggest opportunity. The whisky and gin categories over-index in the on-trade, making it a promising channel to build demand for RTDs made with those spirits.”

Sports-inspired RTDs on the radar

RTDs inspired by associations with sports drinks are a developing niche within the category, as is illustrated by a notable increase in the number of social media posts referencing these products.

According to the WGSN Food & Drink Signal Map, the proportion of social media posts featuring both sports/energy content and alcohol worldwide more than tripled between 2018 and 2026, climbing from 0.07% to 0.25%, with North America ahead of the rest of the world at 0.29%. The number of posts containing both sports/energy themes and alcohol worldwide from January to August 2026 was up by +14% on the corresponding period in 2024.

“Sports drink-inspired RTDs, which IWSR categorises under FABs, are emerging as a distinct growth strand, with new entrants reflecting a rising consumer appetite for ‘fun and function’ in the better-for-you space,” says Goldspink. “A wave of new vodka RTDs is borrowing sports drink cues such as electrolytes, ‘ade’ flavours, low sugar and non-carbonation for a range of daytime and casual occasions”.

Come and talk to our consulting team who can help you determine the optimal route to RTD success within the increasingly complex world of beverage alcohol.

IWSR’s RTDs Strategic Study 2026 and US Spirits-based RTD Report 2026 are both available now – request a callback for more information.